Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.006883 0.007761 0.008710 0.009811 0.011056 0.012419 0.014026
2025-12-28 0.005632 0.006873 0.008325 0.010151 0.012387 0.015042 0.018438
2026-01-04 0.004876 0.006285 0.008026 0.010339 0.013338 0.017104 0.022205
2026-01-11 0.004368 0.005886 0.007849 0.010578 0.014283 0.019156 0.026077
2026-01-18 0.003867 0.005416 0.007496 0.010502 0.014752 0.020568 0.029175
2026-01-25 0.003487 0.005054 0.007232 0.010492 0.015269 0.022046 0.032450
2026-02-01 0.003127 0.004674 0.006894 0.010323 0.015516 0.023126 0.035211
2026-02-08 0.002885 0.004438 0.006733 0.010384 0.016084 0.024697 0.038810
2026-02-15 0.002640 0.004172 0.006497 0.010300 0.016406 0.025900 0.041922
2026-02-22 0.002497 0.004048 0.006462 0.010516 0.017205 0.027891 0.046441
2026-03-01 0.002252 0.003739 0.006108 0.010185 0.017081 0.028382 0.048518
2026-03-08 0.002065 0.003505 0.005854 0.009990 0.017158 0.029191 0.051178
2026-03-15 0.001874 0.003252 0.005552 0.009697 0.017053 0.029704 0.053406
2026-03-22 0.001810 0.003213 0.005608 0.010024 0.018054 0.032203 0.059389
2026-03-29 0.001728 0.003135 0.005587 0.010210 0.018813 0.034328 0.064868
2026-04-05 0.001661 0.003076 0.005594 0.010446 0.019677 0.036705 0.071020
2026-04-12 0.001555 0.002935 0.005442 0.010371 0.019950 0.038001 0.075200
2026-04-19 0.001467 0.002822 0.005330 0.010362 0.020342 0.039545 0.079991
2026-04-26 0.001366 0.002676 0.005146 0.010195 0.020410 0.040463 0.083591
2026-05-03 0.001301 0.002595 0.005080 0.010255 0.020933 0.042311 0.089256
2026-05-10 0.001225 0.002485 0.004948 0.010171 0.021153 0.043562 0.093766
2026-05-17 0.001187 0.002450 0.004962 0.010385 0.022004 0.046173 0.101416
2026-05-24 0.001095 0.002297 0.004726 0.010058 0.021684 0.046300 0.103625